Official Breeders' Cup Odds

The Breeders’ Cup Classic attracted an overflow field for 2024, with 14 plus one on the also-eligible list. White Abarrio won this race last year, but does not return this year, leading to a wide-open field. Unusually, the morning-line favorite is a horse who has never tried dirt before: City of Troy, for Aidan O’Brien. His class is unassailable: he has won six of seven starts including the English Derby, as well as both the Coral Eclipse (G1) and Juddmonte International (G1) against older. He is a son of Triple Crown winner Justify and he looks good over the dirt in the mornings, but race day is always a new test.

The next choice in the betting is likely to be Fierceness, a horse well proven at 1 ¼ miles on dirt by virtue of his gritty Travers (G1) win over superstar Thorpedo Anna. The question is which Fierceness arrives, but if he comes in top form, he will be tough, especially over often speed-friendly Del Mar dirt. Others expected to take money are Kentucky Derby third- and second-place finishers Forever Young and Sierra Leone, as well as ultra-consistent marathoner Next, who cuts back in trip.

Everything old is new again: Rebel’s Romance won this race in 2022, and though he wasn’t quite up to the same standard in 2023, the Charlie Appleby trainee is back on song this year. He has won at the top level this year in Dubai, Hong Kong, and Germany, and also ran in the money in a Group 1 at Ascot. Most of the rest of the top of the market is based overseas as well. Up-and-coming Jayarebe comes out of a win in the Prix Dollar (G2), Emily Upjohn hit the board in Group 1 company in Ireland, England, and France this year, and Japan-based Shahryar hopes to step up from a third-place run in the Breeders’ Cup Turf last year.

The top American hope is Far Bridge for trainer Christophe Clement. This four-year-old be English Channel has won two straight Grade 1 races in New York at 1 ½ miles, stamping him the leader of the domestic turf division. Gold Phoenix, trained by Phil D’Amato, may take some action as the top local runner, though he has significant class to prove.

Thorpedo Anna, the impressive winner of races like the Kentucky Oaks (G1), Acorn (G1), and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), will be a heavy favorite in an expected field of seven after the retirement of defending champion Idiomatic. She has never run a bad race this year: her only loss was a head defeat to major Breeders’ Cup Classic contender Fierceness in the Travers (G1), and the Cotillion (G1), which she won only narrowly last out, was on the short side for her. Now she stretches back to 1 ⅛ miles, and brings a forward yet tactical running style that should shine at Del Mar.

Most bettors looking for an alternative on top will probably land on Raging Sea. Trained by Chad Brown, broke through at the top level two starts back when defeating Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign (G1). In her final prep, she won the Beldame (G2) by a head over Batucada, who needed a career best to make it that close. Awesome Result was also expected to take significant betting interest, but was a vet scratch on Saturday morning.

Charlie Appleby has won the last three editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile and he has the morning-line favorite to make it four. That horse is Notable Speech, a sophomore son of Dubawi. Though he faltered over soft ground in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1) last out, he looked strong in the Sussex (G1) at Goodwood two back, his first race against older. That happened over good ground, and he should relish the California firm going.

The other horse who should battle for favoritism is Porta Fortuna, whose only defeat this year came in her seasonal debut in the 1000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket, where she missed by a neck. She has won three straight Group 1 races since, including a Royal Ascot triumph and a pair of wins versus older. She ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last year, too, meaning she is a proven globetrotter. Others who should be high in the market include the two-time Grade 1 winner Carl Spackler for Chad Brown, Southern California turf mile king Johannes for Tim Yakteen, and the improving Diego Velazquez for Aidan O’Brien. Ramatuelle was also expected to be a major contender, but was scratched Friday by veterinarians.

Unlike last year, when Elite Power owned the sprint division, the field is a lot more wide-open this year, and this race could be ripe for a surprise. The morning-line favorite is Federal Judge, the lightly-raced four-year-old for Brad Cox, who has done his best work on the front end. He’ll have to gun it from near the inside, but he’ll also have to deal with plenty of other pace. Some of that pace is morning-line second choice Mullikin, a Rodolphe Brisset trainee drawn toward the outside, though on the cutback from seven furlongs, he may have to tap into a stalking gear.

The best of the west-coast locals is Straight No Chaser, another speed merchant who comes out of a wire-to-wire score in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) for Dan Blacker. With so much speed in the race, this may be the year to try to catch one of the long shots, a horse who can sit a little bit back: someone like Wesley Ward trainee Nakatomi, or perhaps better yet, late-running globetrotter Remake for Koichi Shintani.

Horses who come in from overseas have shined in this race in recent years: the only United States-based horse to win the Filly & Mare Turf since 2016 was Sistercharlie in 2018. Despite that recent trend, the morning-line favorite is an American: Bill Mott trainee War Like Goddess, who finished third in this race at Del Mar in 2021 but has run against the boys in the Turf the last two years because of the longer distance. War Like Goddess certainly fits, and the 1 ⅜-mile trip isn’t bad, but she may be an underlay as it’s shorter than her best.

Cinderella’s Dream, the second choice on the morning line for Charlie Appleby, started her career with wins in England and Dubai, but has won her last two in graded-stakes company in New York. Appleby also sends out Beautiful Love, who unlike her better-fancied stablemate has actually tried 1 ⅜ miles, including a third against older mares in the Waya (G3). Aidan O’Brien originally had two in the race, although Ylang Ylang was scratched late Tuesday. That leaves Content, who has faltered in her last two over soft ground. However, the firmer footing in California bodes well for her, as her recent form over better ground has been much better.

Watch how the track is playing leading into this race: the top two in the market have distinctly different running styles, and whether the Del Mar dirt is playing fairly to horses coming from off the pace or not will affect their chances greatly. Morning-line favorite East Avenue, trained by Brendan Walsh, has been a buzzsaw up front. He’ll have to send from the fence, but won’t likely be alone up front. Chancer McPatrick, the slim second choice on the morning line, does his best work from off the pace and should get a good setup, but closers need to be getting a fair shake, or he’ll be an underlay.

Jonathan’s Way is an interesting prospect for Philip Bauer; he won the Iroquois (G3) up front but made a winning run when passing horses on debut. Bob Baffert sends out three from his barn, which is typical—but uncommonly, none are likely to vie for favoritism. Gaming is his Grade 1 winner over the course, though Citizen Bull is the one who has gotten the job done at two turns, though that happened at Santa Anita Park. Ferocious, trained by Gustavo Delgado, has been a buzz horse since selling for $1.3 million in March but has tables to turn on the top two on the morning line.