How to Handicap Horse Speed

It’s important to put into context why many bettors use speed and time to rate horses for wagering purposes.

Over in England or Ireland for example this is less important; before major races some horses are only at 80% fitness in the trials. They will improve massively on the big day and in France they traditionally race very slowly before sprinting towards the end, making the clock an unreliable indicator of ability.

In North America, however, and especially on the dirt, the emphasis is still on bouncing out of the gate, getting a good position, and hitting it as hard as possible between that point and the wire. This outright speed is crucial.

How Can I Handicap Speed in a Horse Race to Pick Winners?

Horseplayers have been attempting to handicap horses this way for decades, in the past using old fashioned stop-watches to check on how quick horses were going between two specific points in a race.

Technology is available these days however to be able to read times and figures for any horse in the country based on their speed and this has proven vital for professional bettors everywhere.

Use a Proven Method of Judging Horse Pace

Brisnet.com publishes their ‘Ultimate Past Performances’ race cards with adjusted pace ratings reflecting daily and track-to-track variants across the whole country.

The numbers given are categorized by E1, E2 and LP. E1 measures how fast a horse runs from the start to the first call; two furlongs in sprints and four furlongs in routes. E2 is how fast they went from the start to the second call; four furlongs in sprints and six in routes while LP or ‘late pace’ measures how fast they ran from the second call to the finish.

To put it into numbers, Brisnet assigns 2 points per length and so each horse can have a number assigned to them for each of the three measures in the race, E1, E2 and LP adjusted for how much weight they are carrying that day giving you a good idea of how each horse measures up at different points of the race.

This is important as there may be a well known bias at a given track for those who can break quickly, or perhaps you may be wagering at a track that favors late speed down the stretch.

Which Race Sectionals Should I Use?

They are all important, but just remember how they each affect horses and races differently. If you spot a race where only one horse has strong E1 and E2 pace figures, this may mean they can get an easy lead allowing them to front-run at their own pace and save energy for the run-in.

Sometimes however there may be lots of horses with similar early speed and that can lead to them taking each other on and cutting each other’s throats a little, then finding the one horse with the strongest LP could be fruitful as they may be doing their best work when the others are tired.

What is the difference between a handicap and a non handicap horse race?

In a handicap race, a track official called a handicapper assigns either a rating or a specific weight to carry, based on their assessment of each horse’s form. Better horses are assigned more weight, with less accomplished horses (or horses with weaker recent form) assigned less. Non-handicap races are typically run under weight-for-age conditions, where horses are assigned weights based on their age, with sometimes an allowance for sex. They can also be run under allowance conditions, with both weight-for-age provisions as well as a table of weight allowances for horses who have not won (or have not recently won) at a particular level.

How does the handicap system work in horse racing?

In North America, there is no formal handicap system, though handicappers can determine weights for individual races, typically stakes races that are run under handicap conditions. However, in other racing jurisdictions like Great Britain, Dubai, and Australia, horses are assigned what is called a handicap rating based on the quality of their recent form. Many handicap races are open to horses within a certain range of handicap ratings, and then weights are assigned in order to give each horse a theoretically equal chance, with higher-rated horses carrying more and lower-rated ones carrying less.

How are horse handicaps calculated?

Horse handicaps are calculated by a track official called the handicapper. The handicapper assesses the form of each horse expected to run in a particular race, and assigns weights accordingly. Heavier weights are given to horses who have won or run well in the most difficult races, especially if those races happened fairly recently. Less accomplished horses, or horses whose recent form is on a downswing, are assigned lower weights. The idea is to assign weights that even the playing field, and give each horse a fairly equal chance. However, handicappers typically assign a smaller range of weights in handicap races (particularly in North America) now than they did in the past, meaning horses with classier current form often do retain a practical edge.

How important is “the going” in horse racing?

“The going,” or the condition of a course, is extremely important. On dirt, some horses only like to run on fast tracks, whereas other horses have strong form over good, sloppy, or muddy tracks. On turf, some horses only run well over firm or good conditions, whereas others show their best over soggier conditions like yielding or soft. Identifying which horses run well over the conditions they will face on a race day will help you uncover longer-priced horses who move up based on that day’s going, as well as eliminate short-priced horses who may run poorly over the conditions they will face in their upcoming race.

Judging Horse Pace on the Turf

With a different dynamic to dirt races, especially over longer distances, even those horses with strong E1 and E2 figures usually aren’t being asked to do too much up front. On the turf it is almost always better to concentrate on those with the best Late Pace, as long as they aren’t too far back and are in a position to challenge in the stretch.

Is Judging Horse Pace Enough?

Definitely not. Using pace ratings and perhaps even watching the clock yourself is a good head start but it is not the be-all and end-all.

If a horse is extremely fast through the first 2 furlongs and able to open up a gap that is no guarantee of a win, but equally just because a horse shows extreme speed early in the race that doesn’t mean it can’t last all the way to the wire; just as much depends on the conditions underfoot and the relative strength of the opposition.

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