Belmont Stakes Picks

By TVG Staff
Updated June 7, 2024

The Triple Crown comes to its exciting conclusion on Saturday, June 8, with the Belmont Stakes. 10 of the country’s leading three-year-olds will compete for a $2 million purse, raised from $1.5 million last year. Due to construction at Belmont Park, the race will happen at historic Saratoga Race Course for the first time ever.

The distance will be 1 ¼ miles, like the Kentucky Derby: though Belmont Park has a 1 ½-mile dirt course, running that distance at Saratoga would require putting the starting gate on the turn. Hence, the race will be shortened to 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga to give everyone a more fair start. The race is expected to return to 1 ½ miles when it returns to its traditional home.

The third and final jewel of the Triple Crown, the race is not only an exciting opportunity for the connections of the horses, but also a great opportunity for you to make money as a bettor. The 1 ¼-mile distance, which horses will have only tried if they headed to Churchill Downs to race in the Kentucky Derby five weeks before, makes it an interesting puzzle. And, the field of nine classy, young contenders means there are plenty of scenarios to consider while making your selections.

You are already doing the right thing by being here and reading about the Belmont Stakes. After all, horse racing is a game of information, and expert insight can help you make or refine your picks. A professional prediction can help your Belmont bets be the best they can be, and help make sure you see angles on the Belmont Stakes field that you might not think about otherwise. Read on to meet the Belmont Stakes field, our expert thoughts on the major contenders in the field, as well as suggested bets for the race!

Picks for 2024 Belmont Stakes

The Belmont drew an exciting field of ten horses. Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone, the first two horses home in the Kentucky Derby, have drawn in. Preakness Stakes winner Seize the Grey is in the lineup as well, along with Peter Pan (G3) winner Antiquarian, up-and-coming Mindframe, and more.

Belmont Stakes Best Bet

The best bet in the Belmont Stakes is Mystik Dan. Even though he has to turn the tables on Seize the Grey, who he faces again at Saratoga, this is a completely different race. In Baltimore, Imagination quickly backed off the pace and Seize the Grey had a free ride. But, in the Belmont? Dornoch has to go, The Wine Steward will be right up there, and Mindframe probably finds a spot up near him as well. Even though Seize the Grey isn’t true one-way speed, he’ll have to go a lot faster and also be able to stay 1 ¼ miles. That faster pace scenario does not suit the Preakness winner—but it’s great news for Mystik Dan.

The post draw also suits Mystik Dan beautifully. He drew the 3 gate, perfect for jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. to tuck him inside and take advantage of his ability to make a fearless inside run. He showed in the Kentucky Derby that he can fight on and win at 1 ¼ miles—the traditional 1 ½ miles might have been a little too long for Mystik Dan, but this Saratoga distance plays right into his strength. There is also rain in the forecast in Saratoga this week; if it falls, Mystik Dan has proven he skips over a wet track well.

Belmont Stakes Favorite

The morning-line favorite for the Belmont Stakes is Sierra Leone, and he does have strong claims in the third jewel of the Triple Crown. The Chad Brown trainee missed by just a nose to Mystik Dan in the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs, but it was still a good enough effort to prove that he has real 1 ¼-mile stamina.

His consistency also recommends him: if it weren’t for that nose to Mystik Dan and another nose to Dornoch in the Remsen (G2), he would be perfect. That is particularly notable for a closer. He has faced softer pace setups and still run well. He has made threatening moves around the far turn, the kind that tend to fizzle out in the lane, and yet he has been able to keep right on going. This bodes well for him to run well again in the Belmont.

Belmont Stakes Exotic Horses

It took some time for Resilience to come around, but he put it all together in the Wood Memorial (G2). He was mired on the rail in a field of 12 that day, and was still able to work out a stalking trip and kick away to win by 2 ½ lengths in the end. The Kentucky Derby didn’t go as well: he was stuck in the 18 hole, didn’t get as forward as he likes, moved early, and weakened to a seventh-place finish. However, now he’s back toward the inside, something he has handled before. If he can get a spot just off of the horses fighting on the lead, he can get a jump on the closers and run a good race at a price.

Honor Marie is another horse who has a chance to bounce back from a troubled effort in the Kentucky Derby. In his case, early trouble forced him to sit too far off the running early. He made a middle move to get into contention, but between the trouble and the timing of the move, he could not sustain it and ended up eighth. The smaller field gives him a chance for a less chaotic beginning, meaning he could have more chance to tap into his long-winded pedigree and make a better late run. It is also a positive to see a rider change to Florent Geroux, who has more experience in major American dirt races.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has four Belmont Stakes winners, and he has three chances for a fifth. Mindframe is promising in future races, but with only two races and zero stakes experience, he is an underlay in the Belmont Stakes. Antiquarian has gained more experience, including a victory in the Peter Pan (G3) a month ago, though he still needs to take a step up to prove he is on the same level as many of his foes in the Belmont Stakes.

The most interesting runner from Pletcher’s barn is also the most likely longest shot on the board: Protective. Though he is still a maiden, unlike short-priced stablemate Mindframe he actually has graded-stakes experience—two races worth of it, in fact. He overcame a rough start and finished a late-running third in the Wood, and then he stalked and took another third-place finish in the Peter Pan. Yes, he has to turn the tables on Antiquarian from that race, but with a strong distance pedigree, some pace versatility, and that faster effort in the Wood to run back to, he can. Though it would be a surprise for Protective to break his maiden in the Belmont, a spot in the exotics would be no surprise at all.

What to Look Out for When Deciding on Belmont Stakes Picks

We’ll have our own picks for the Belmont Stakes soon, but if you want to try your hand at your own handicapping, here is what to think about.

The Belmont Stakes is a grueling test of stamina and fitness. Even though the 1 ¼-mile distance at Saratoga is two furlongs shorter than the traditional trip for the Belmont, it is the same demanding distance as the Kentucky Derby. It is something most of these horses will never tackle again, unless they remain good enough to contest races like the Breeders’ Cup Classic or Dubai World Cup. Thus, pedigree often provides a strong indication of who can win the Belmont Stakes. Most American racehorses are not bred to go the Belmont distance since American horse racing tends to focus on sprint and middle-distance races day in and day out, but some stallions prove year in and year out that their progeny are up to the task of such a trip.

The best example of this is super-stallion Tapit. He has sired four Belmont Stakes winners: Tonalist, Creator, Tapwrit, and Essential Quality. His grandson Tiz the Law has won, too. Tapit has proven to be the best stamina merchant by strong sire-of-sires Pulpit, and it is no surprise when his descendants can carry themselves the Belmont Stakes distance.

Running style is another strong consideration to make when picking a horse in the Belmont Stakes. Many handicappers, particularly novice Triple Crown handicappers, forget that deep closers rarely win the Belmont Stakes. People love to play a horse who clunks up for fourth in the Kentucky Derby, but the Belmont is very much a tactical race, and horses on the lead or in striking positions do very well.

Key Pointers for Predicting the Best Belmont Stakes Picks

Wondering about how to bet on the Belmont Stakes? Sometimes it’s about what to do, other times it’s about what not to do in racing as we’ll discover when making predictions regarding the favorite horses.

Don’t Look Exclusively at the Speed Figures

Speed figures are great when there is a level playing field and all the runners are experienced, but as sophomores, we don’t yet know how good all of the Belmont entries are going to be. With the race being run at Saratoga, take a look if any of the horses showed up at the meet last year, and how they performed over the surface. Finally, pace often provides good predictions for the Belmont favorites. Though closers often get a piece underneath, the Belmont winner is usually a horse who can either set the pace or stalk in range of the pacesetter.

Get a Visual Clue

Reading the current form of the runners is one thing even if you’re open-minded, but watching how a horse runs or at least reviewing a stretch run on video can go a long way to helping you make your mind up. Those trapped on the rail, ridden too far back early and/or finishing with a late surge can often have their performances upgraded as mistakes by trainers and jockeys at this level are rarely repeated. You can also get good visual clues by watching videos of the horse’s final workouts before the Belmont, as well as watching the simulcast feed to see how the horse appears in the paddock on race day.

Class Counts

The results of the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness Stakes help us out, but those are not the only prep races to look at for the Belmont Stakes. Recent Belmont winners have come out of quality Kentucky Derby prep races such as the Blue Grass (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1), Florida Derby (G1), and Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Also keep an eye on late-developing horses, who maybe sat out of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but won local prep races at Belmont Park such as the Peter Pan Stakes.

Find the Stamina

In 2024 the Belmont will be run at the same 1 ¼-mile distance as the Kentucky Derby: shorter than the usual 1 ½-mile distance, but still one of the longer trips in the horse racing world. Performance in longer races like the other Triple Crown races, or even long preps like the Louisiana Derby or the UAE Derby can provide a suggestion as to how much the horse may handle even more distance. Although shorter preps like the Arkansas Derby or the Peter Pan do less to reveal horses that will handle Classic distances well, a horse who is faltering near the end of one of these 1 ⅛ mile races may not want to get the Belmont Stakes distance.

To get an even better idea of how well a horse will handle the Belmont Stakes distance, look at their pedigree. Look at the sire’s record, and the record of the sire’s progeny, going a mile and a half, or at least distances of a mile and a quarter or longer. Look at the dam, as well, and the record of her foals and close relatives. Furthermore, it can be useful to watch how horses are handling the distances as they get longer into the Triple Crown. Are they losing ground, or looking like they are staggering? Or, are they gaining ground (preferably while already close to the leader) and running on with strength and confidence late? These will help you unlock horses who will run well in the Belmont.

Look for Value – But Don’t Go Chasing the Bigger Odds Without a Reason

If a firm Belmont Stakes favorite emerges and you aren’t convinced that the horse is the next Justify, don’t allow the odds to cloud your judgment and look elsewhere. However, you should also not be obsessed with trying to back an outsider. If you have a firm opinion on a certain horse and they are favored, don’t hold back. After all, horse racing is a game of opinions. Stick to your opinion, and bet them to win.