Our very own TVG Talent is here to give you picks and insight on all the top races for Derby and Oaks Day!

Oaks Day Preview

Alysheba Stakes - Race 5, 12:43pm ET - Dave Weaver

The first stakes race of Kentucky Derby weekend is the Alysheba Stakes, being contested on Friday’s Kentucky Oaks undercard at 1 1/16 miles on the main track as race 5. The handicap division is wide open at this point of the year with many of the heavyweights exchanging blows over the last few months.

#1 Art Collector proved that he can beat anyone when he is at the top of his game, by virtue of his authoritative win in this year’s Pegasus World Cup. But he doesn’t always bring his “A” game and has finished off the board in 4 of his 6 starts at Churchill Downs making him an unreliable play.

#4 West Will Power is razor-sharp at the moment with six straight first or second place finishes and he beat Art Collector by almost 5 lengths in their recent match up in the New Orleans Classic. He will be tough to catch on the lead under Flavien Prat.

#5 Smile Happy didn’t get going in time at the shorter distance of one mile in his last start at Oaklawn Park and could run on for the exacta.

#3 Rich Strike, last year’s winner of the Kentucky Derby at odds of 80-1 has lost five straight races since that improbable score, but has been freshened since November and could come back with a big effort at the track he owns both of his career victories.

Top Picks:
4. West Will Power
5. Smile Happy
3. Rich Strike

Modesty Stakes - Race 6, 1:26pm ET - Joaquin Jaime

The Grade 3 Modesty Stakes has a field of nine runners with two horses from the barn of Brendan Walsh and two horses from Chad Brown. There are also three Grade or Group one winners in the field. They are Didia, McKulick, and Shantisara.

There is a lack of pace in this event with Sweet Dani Girl the one to catch from her inside post. Even though she has a pace advantage; this is a big step up for her. In her last two wins she was able to set a soft pace but did so against restricted Florida-bred competition.

New Year’s Eve is going to be my top selection in this race for Walsh. Yes, I know that she is a closer and there’s a lack of early speed, but she was up against it in her last race and ran very well. She was coming in off nearly a seven-month layoff and dropped very far back in the race. In the stretch, she did come with a nice late run. She should improve making her second start off the bench, her best race is at Churchill Downs, and the nine furlongs and Churchill turf course should suit her running style better than the Fair Grounds.

Shantisara has shown some versatility in her two races this year. At Gulfstream, she was taken too far back out of the race. She ran on well down the stretch, but the winner sat close to the pace and got the jump on her. In her last race at Tampa, the pace was slow again, but the difference is that she sat right off the early leader. I like the fact that she was able to adapt to the pace scenario in the Hillsborough and envision her sitting close to a slow pace once again.

Didia is on a very nice win streak. She has won her last six races and is 3-for-3 in the U.S. She beat New Year’s Eve on the square in her last race and did so off a seven-month layoff, so you must give her some credit. This will be her first start with the big girls in the U.S., but I think she can handle the step up in class. She’s won at 10 furlongs in her native Argentina so the nine furlongs should be no issue for her at all.

McKulick makes her seasonal debut off a long layoff on Friday. Even though she’s run well off the layoff before, the distance seems short of her best and she catches some nice horses that have the fitness edge on her.

Good luck on Friday and Saturday!

Top Picks:
8. New Year’s Eve
7. Shantisara
2. Didia

Eight Belles Stakes - Race 7, 2:09pm ET - Mike Joyce

The Eight Belles is lucrative race for 3 Year-Old Fillies going 7/8ths of a mile on the main track. The enormous purse of $500,000 matches the theme of horse racing’s biggest weekend and features some talented runners worthy of its Grade 2 status.

The conversation starts (and may end) with Todd Pletcher’s Munnys Gold, who breaks from post 9. In just 3 starts she has shown freakish ability to run her rivals off their feet and sports an average win margin of over 12 and a half lengths. The times of her races and the caliber of her speed figures, both Beyer and ThoroGraph, would make her competitive against older males in Grade 1 sprints. Now destroying inferior competition in Florida-Bred restricted races and doing the same against open graded Stakes company are two different things, but there is no reason to believe she won’t be the same filly with the jump up in class. There is other speed in here and we’ll see what she can do if they start smoking early but she may just be better than these and the outside post only helps.

Every horse from posts 1 through 7 have raced against high-level stakes company before and several were Kentucky Oaks hopefuls before cutting back to today’s 7 furlong distance. Grand Love at a 15-1 morning line is the most interest of those 7 simply because her lone one-turn effort in her debut was her only win and arguably her best race. Her talent may have kept her competitive going two turns in those tough Oaks prep races but I have a hunch she’s a better 1-turn sprinter/miler. I’m definitely using her in exotics.

The real wild card, and my top selection, is Chad Brown’s lightly raced Accede. And I’m not kidding about the ‘lightly’ part as she only has one race under her belt. But I’m a sucker for a second time starter, we basically know what every other horse in this field is capable of and she’s bred in the absolute Purple being by top stallion Into Mischief and out of Jibboom, an ultra-impressive race mare in her own right whom I witnessed first-hand win the 2007 Lexus Raven Run in my first ever trip to Keeneland. It’s the Jay Bilas “Tremendous Upside Potential” angle in effect.

Top Picks:
8. Accede
5. Grand Love
9. Munnys Gold - Yeah, I Know She’s Prolly Gonna Win But It’s Called Gambling

Unbridled Sydney Stakes - Race 8, 3:03pm ET - Kurt Hoover

A field of twelve fillies and mares line up for this five and a half furlong turf sprint.

Caravel is the 4-5 morning line favorite and figures to be very tough to beat. The BC Turf Sprint winner from last year comes into the race off a game win against the boys in the Shakertown at Keeneland. Her Beyer figures from her last two starts tower over the rest of the field and even though she is very fast, she is not a need the lead type. The one concern is that she is prone to throw in a few clunkers, see the Turf Sprint, the Caress and the PID Masters.

Bay Storm ships in from Southern California and draws the rail. Usually that post would be tough in a turf sprint, but she has drawn the rail four times in her last ten starts and fired every time. She has run well fresh and ran second in her only start over this course.

Oeuvre had a five race win streak snapped in her last start at Keeneland. She didn't break sharp, got shuffled back and was never a factor. This Illinois bred could rebound with a clean trip.

Top Picks:
11. Caravel
1. Bay Storm
8. Oeuvre

Money Back Specia Pick: 1. Bay Storm

La Troienne Stakes - Race 9, 4:04pm ET - Rich Perloff

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen picked out a very ambitious spot for SOCIETY’s seasonal debut on April 8, sending her in the Madison Stakes (G1) at Keeneland against heavily favored Goodnight Olive, the winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly/Mare Sprint. SOCIETY showed her usual gate speed, leading the Madison for a half-mile before tiring to 3rd. It was a solid run in a race she had every right to need, and with that effort under her belt, I believe she’ll take the La Troienne field wire-to-wire under new rider Jose Ortiz. SOCIETY is a perfect 2-for-2 at the La Troienne distance of 1 1/16 miles, including an eye-popping blowout win in last year’s million dollar Cotillion Stakes (G1) at Parx.

SECRET OATH made a clear lead in upper stretch, and was still running hard at the wire of the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) at Oaklawn on April 15; she just got nailed in the last jump by another talented distaffer by the name of Clairiere. Despite having to settle for 2nd in Hot Springs, SECRET OATH earned a career-best Beyer figure (102), and makes the third start of her 4-year-old campaign in the La Troienne. She’s already a Grade 1 winner over this racetrack (KY Oaks 2022), and she’s dependable for a quality effort.

PLAYED HARD draws the rail, but has the speed to overcome it. Her problem is that SOCIETY looks like the quicker of the two. What’s more, SOCIETY is a need-the-lead type, whereas PLAYED HARD has come from off the pace - if only slightly - in three of her five career wins. She figures for a dream trip behind SOCIETY, and if the top choice starts to tire late, PLAYED HARD gets first jump on SECRET OATH, who is a deeper closer.

Top picks:
7. Society
4. Secret Oath
11. Played Hard

Edgewood Stakes - Race 10, 4:51pm ET - Caleb Keller

This is an evenly matched race with horses coming from all over. The one angle I’m going to play in this race is the fact there is a lack of true early speed.

#8 Heavenly Sunday- this is the horse who could most take advantage of the tepid early fractions. Even through two straight 3rd place finishes I feel Heavenly Sunday is still improving. She showed in her first two wins that she can run powerfully when she is controlling the pace turning for home.

#9 Papilio- if it weren’t for a troubled trip at Gulfstream back in Early March, this horse would be undefeated in two American starts. She’s shown the classiest late kick so far of this group. Even with the lack of speed in this race this filly has the talent to overcome that.

#2 Liguria- Chad Brown shows confidence in his placement by starting this filly’s 2023 campaign off with a stakes try on Oaks Day. She came to hand quickly in the fall and gets a ground saving trip with Flavien Prat

Top Picks
8. Heavenly Sunday
9. Papilio
2. Liguaria

Kentucky Oaks - Race 11, 5:51pm ET - Caton Bredar

The Kentucky Oaks is always one of my favorite races because the fillies generally run truer to form than their male counterparts in the Derby tomorrow. That said, this year’s field is one of the more evenly matched groups we’ve seen in some time, lending itself to the possibility of beating the favorite, Wet Paint.

While I respect Wet Paint off three straight wins at Oaklawn Park, one more impressive than the next, her style is to drop way back and make a late kick. She will need luck and a solid pace to run into, and I’m not sure there are enough true front runners to offer her the ideal set up.

Wet Paint’s stable mate, Botanical, by contrast, has good early speed and while versatile, is training in a manner suggesting she will be sharp and into the race early. Botanical enters the Oaks off four straight wins—all on a synthetic surface. But her pedigree and the way she’s trained suggest she can carry her game to the main track at Churchill Downs.

Brad Cox, the trainer of both Botanical and Wet Paint, has two Kentucky Oaks wins to his credit and holds a very strong hand. That said, Norm Casse is making his first Kentucky Oaks run with Southlawn, who also has tactical abilities and seems on the improve. Southlawn comes to the Run for the Lillies via the FairGrounds Oaks, a route most used by Oaks winners in recent times. Two for two as a three-year-old, her pedigree suggests she can continue to improve and is definitely a top player in my mind.

Top Picks:
6. Botanical
4. Southlawn
7. Wet Paint

Derby Day Preview

Derby City Distaff - Race 4, 12:04pm ET - Scott Hazelton

#3 Wicked Halo had an extremely productive year last season, winning half of her starts. And honestly, she reminds me of her father, sire, Gun Runner. She has lost some races to some big time fillies, but she always manages to bounce back, just like Gun Runner did during his racing career. Wicked Halo is such an incredibly game race filly and if it comes up wet on Saturday at Churchill Downs, she is proven on the wet dirt unlike #2 Goodnight Olive.

I think rain possibility and Wicked Halo’s proven success at Churchill Downs is enough to take a shot against the ’22 champion female sprinter. Who is my 2nd selection and obviously is the horse to beat and will be an odds on favorite. She has won 7 races in a row, already won a Grade 1 this year, the Madison at Keeneland and looks like she is just as good as last year. Picking against her is more of a search for a slightly better price with a filly, Wicked Halo, who I feel has a race in her to beat Goodnight Olive.

Do not, in any circumstance, leave #2 Goodnight Olive off your tickets in multi race exotic situations. But there’s a chance the gap will close sooner or later between these two and I don’t want to miss out if sooner wins out. #4 Travel Column will be a big price. There’s no sugar coating it, her last race at Keeneland was not good. She weakened very badly and lost to a filly who provided one of the biggest upsets of the entire spring meet at Keeneland. But that race was Travel Column’s first start go ’23 coming in to that race off a 5 month layoff. She’s won 3 races in 4 starts at Churchill Downs and the fact that they push on towards this Grade 1 versus the two best female dirt sprinters in the world is a vote of positivity. I don’t think she can win but she can break into the top three at a big price. Also consider #1 Hot and Sultry. She’ll be better with the return to sprinting.

Top Picks:
3. Wicked Halo
2. Goodnight Olive
4. Travel Column

Churchill Distaff Turf Mile - Race 5, 12:46pm ET - Andi Biancone

The 5th race on this year’s incredible Kentucky Derby undercard will be the Grade II Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile. This $5000,000, mile long turf event will feature an elite group of fillies and mares aged four years old and upward. Defending champion Speak of the Devil (Fr) will be one of the mares returning to this year’s field with the hopes of giving trainer Chad Brown his third consecutive Distaff Turf Mile victory, and Bill Mott’s Wakanaka, who finished third in this race last year. Bill Mott is the winningest trainer of this race with four total victories, but Chad Brown sits close with three total victories, and sends three mares out to compete in the field this year.

The newest face on the block will be the champion filly Spandarella, who will be making her four-year-old season debut for trainer Graham Motion after a dazzling three-year-old campaign. Although I personally am not one to heavily endorse a four-year-old filly up against an older group of mares, Spandarella will be my top choice in this race. Spinderella’s race record speaks for herself; she has won four out of her last five starts, and in the only race she was beaten in she finished a solid second overseas at Ascot in the G1 Coronation Stakes. The only factor that could possibly be used to make a case against Spandarella would be the fact that she has never started off more than a month-long layoff, and she will be running in the Churchill distaff mile without a race under her belt since her victory in the Grade I Del Mar Oaks back in August of 2022. Despite this potential point of vulnerability, trainer Graham Motion strikes at a 30% rate off a 180+ day layoff, and Spandarella has had a series of nice five-, and six furlong drills over the Fair Hill Training center poly track, and Palm Meadows Turf course leading into this race.

Other entries in the race who pique my interest other than our 7/5 morning line favorite include two of the Chad Brown Entries Fluffy Socks, and Speak of the Devil (Fr). Fluffy Socks intrigues me because although she hasn’t won a race since October of 2021, she is an extremely game, filly who always seems to be right there but just runs out of racing luck. I like Fluffy socks cutting back to this mile distance, she has run some of her best races over the Churchill Downs Turf course, and she picks up jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Every race Fluffy Socks runs, the comments on her form include words like “gamely” and “willingly” which are all positive comments indicating that she is a horse who consistently tries, and a horse who runs consistent races is bound to jump up and win one when they are due. I also cannot discount Speak of the Devil (Fr); her form fell a little flat after last year’s victory in the Churchill Distaff Mile, but she has legitimate excuses. In the G1 Just a Game Stakes at Belmont Park, the wide, single turn configuration of Belmont’s mile turf course simply didn’t suit this mare’s running style, and at Gulfstream Park in the G3 Honey Fox she got shuffled back behind a crawling pace and made up a bit of ground on a speed favoring course with minimal stretch run. Speak of the Devil (Fr) has proven herself on the Churchill Downs turf course and I think she will be elated to get back on to the surface.

Top Picks:
5. Spandarella
2. Speak of the Devil (Fr)
7. Fluffy Socks

Knicks Go Stakes - Race 6, 1:14pm ET - Adam McGrath

The race brings together a field of twelve runners, with the only last start winner being #6 Zozos who’s starting to put together an impressive record. The lightly raced four-year-old colt has had seven starts for four victories, including his most recent win in March. On paper, he appears to be the new kid on the block and the horse to beat, but there are plenty of other quality chances in this event.

#2 Masqueparade has had three starts this year for a victory and two-seconds and will try to ensure that this race is run at a good tempo.

#3 Baby Yoda is one-from-one at this track and will also ensure there is good speed in this event. He will be looking to add to his impressive record last year, which saw him bring up four victories in his eight starts.

#5 Surly Furious is another five-year-old that likes to race on-speed and also won four of his eight starts last year.

#9 Kneedeepinsnow returned the other day at Keeneland and put in a strong performance to finish second from an inside post-position. Drawn out-wide here, he’ll likely look to roll forward and inject speed into this event as well with the fitness he gained from his first-up run.

Top Picks:
6. Zozos
9. Kneedeepinsnow
3. Baby Yoda

Turf Sprint Stakes - Race 7, 1:56pm ET - Ken Rudolph

14 runners are set to sprint the 5.5 furlongs on the Churchill turf this year, including 2022 winner

Arrest Me Red. But, the defending champ hasnt won a race since then so he’s looking for a

repeat of last year’s run to turn things around. I’m betting against that and here is why.

Speed is the name of the game here, #7 Nothing Better is the quickest out of the gate. He

should be joined by #8 Just Might plus, #6 Bad Beat Brian and the outside trio of runners #12

Caratori, #13 Artemus Citylimits and, #14 Noble Reflection. With a solid pace up front it sets up

perfectly for a few horses.

Closers and stalkers will take over in the stretch with #2 Go Bears Go, #3 Evan Sing, #4 Big

Invasion, and #9 Oceanic. They all possess a great kick in the lane. Go Bears Go and Evan

Sing are both coming back after time off, but they are also proven winners when they come

back fresh like they are Saturday.

I prefer a sprinter with a bit of recency and #4 BIG INVASION for Christophe Clement and Joel Rosario should be in prime position to run them down in the final 300 yards. California invader #11 Moritorius for Phil D’Amato has a serious turn of foot and could be on the scene late for the exotics. #5 Necker Island has never sprinted on the turf so this is a wait and see situation. #1 Nobals is the mystery horse here with most of his racing on synthetic tracks. He could be anything.

Top Picks:
4. Big Invasion
11. Moritorius
7. Nothing Better

Pat Day Mile - Race 8, 2:46pm ET - Britney Eurton

Three-year-olds take the stage in the G2 Pay Day Mile. Often seen as an ‘alternative’ to the Kentucky Derby for those runners that didn’t secure enough points or perhaps less suited for the taxing 1 1/4 distance that will come later in the afternoon. Nonetheless, the Pat Day Mile oft comes with a complex handicapping puzzle that could result in a fruitful score and a thrilling finish.

No shortage of runners in this field will a full gate of 14 signed up. Let’s try and separate the sophomores…

#9 General Jim (4/1 ML) — The three-year-old son of super sire, Into Mischief, is clearly a versatile sort. He’s won route races on turf and an elongated sprint on the main track. On paper, he looks like the type of horse that’s just progressing as he matures, the Beyer Speed Figures clearly trending up. He looked like a completely different horse with the addition of the blinkers in the most recent affair beating next out winner, Super Chow, who since dominated the Hutcheson by 5 1/4 lengths. Having gone the distance and then some over the grass a few starts back, the stretch out from 7 furlongs to a one turn mile appears to be well within his wheel house. An attractive runner at a price that very well could float up.

#5 Echo Again (7/2 ML) — Came back in a big way for the Hall of Famer after a slight freshening and drop in class. This is a horse the barn has always thought highly of and he ran to expectations at first asking winning his debut by almost 7 lengths. The efforts late fall and winter left something to be desired, but he appears to be back in his best form. With the benefit of (finally) getting off the rail, Florent Geroux has the option of watching the pace unfold in front of him and sitting in the cat bird seat behind the speed. If you can get 7/2 on this runner come post time, head to the windows.

#7 Fort Bragg (9/2 ML) — I was toying between the two Yakteen runners to round out the trifecta as either could set the pace, but one thing that Fort Bragg has that Kangaroo Court doesn’t, is experience at the distance. This runner set the pace in the Florida Derby after breaking from an outside post position. Wasn’t able to sustain that bid, but look who he ran into… Kentucky Derby favorite Forte. No shame in that effort. He’s the type of horse that has the quickness to sit close to the pace, potentially just off the hip of his stablemate, and when that one gets leg weary, he’ll have the jump on the rest of the competition.

Best of luck!

Top Picks:
9. General Jim
5. Echo Again
7. Fort Bragg

American Turf - Race 9, 3:40pm ET - Matt Bernier

The headliner on Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs is obviously the 149th Kentucky Derby, however I’m most interested in a different race for three-year-olds that will take place on the undercard. This year’s American Turf for three-year-old males on the grass is possibly the deepest race on the Kentucky Derby card, with legitimate superstar potential abound. Below you will find my top four selections for this year’s American Turf, as well as what I would deem to be fair odds when considering a win wager.

TALK OF THE NATION (4) has shown an immense amount of potential in his first two turf starts for trainer Shug McGaughey, and it seems as though the three-year-old son of Quality Road is prepared to take a significant step forward in Saturday’s race. Despite racing at Tampa Bay Downs in each of his turf tries, Talk of the Nation defeated solid opposition when winning March’s Columbia Stakes. Mo Stash (who is also in this field) was soundly defeated on March 11, only to return to win the G3 Transylvania at Keeneland on April 7. Talk of the Nation has lovely tactical speed that should allow jockey Tyler Gaffalione to position him in an ideal spot, ready to make his move as the field turns for home. At odds of 9/2 (+450) or better, Talk of the Nation is worth a win wager.

If Talk of the Nation doesn’t deliver, CARL SPACKLER (11) is the most likely winner of the American Turf. Trained by Chad Brown, the son of Lope de Vega packs a wicked punch down the lane, flashing home in elite fashion. Brown’s runners typically get better as the year rolls along, so it would be no surprise to see Jose Ortiz guide this colt to the winner’s circle. Expect both he and Talk of the Nation to work out similar trips, likely sitting a few lengths off the pace as the field heads down the backstretch. Fair odds on this runner would also be around 9/2 (+450) – although that doesn’t seem likely.

Although picked behind Carl Spackler, FAR BRIDGE (2) emerged victorious in the only head-to-head matchup between the two on January 21. When he won that day and then again followed up with a victory against N1X company, Far Bridge was trained by Christophe Clement. Now, Far Bridge’s trainer is listed as Todd Pletcher, and while that in and of itself isn’t a bad thing – isn’t this a case of if it’s not broken, don’t fix it? This colt has paired up Beyer Speed Figures in his first two starts and again warrants consideration on Saturday. Fair win odds for this runner would land around 6/1, or +600.

He was no match for Two Phil’s in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, but MAJOR DUDE (1) has done nothing wrong in his career and is another viable option in a wide-open affair. Also trained by Pletcher, this son of Bolt d’Oro was on the also-eligible list for the Kentucky Derby, although that never seemed like a realistic scenario based on the way the connections spoke. Transitioning back to the turf will be no issue for Major Dude, and he’s yet another runner that brings tactical speed to the table. At odds of 6/1 (+600) or better, Major Dude would offer fair odds in the win pool.

Top Picks:
4. Talk of the Nation
11. Carl Speckler
2. Far Bridge

Churchill Downs Stakes - Race 10, 4:31pm ET - Gabby Gaudet

The Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes at seven furlongs is always an important race this time of year for the sprint division. You can see horses returning that might’ve competed in the Triple Crown the year prior and are in need of a turn back in distance. You may also see horses who competed in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or Dirt Mile. The 2023 edition is highlighted by the return of Dirt Mile winner Cody’s Wish.

#7. Cody’s Wish - Cody’s Wish showed that he can achieve a whole new level of success at one turn distances. The question for him was would we see him in the Sprint or the two-turn Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile? Although he had to work for it after a slow break, he pulled off an impressive win in the latter. Hall of Famer Bill Mott wouldn’t enter him in this Grade 1 on Derby Day if he didn’t feel he wat ready to roll.

#4. Hoist the Gold - For a price underneath, I look to Hoist the Gold. He doesn’t have many wins but someone he keeps showing up to hit the board at big prices. He sat close to a fast pace last out and I didn’t think that was the place to be as the winner closed.

#10. Endorsed - Endorsed is good right now. He’s in the best form of his life. Did he like Gulfstream over the winter or is he just good now? His 0-6 record at Churchill deterred me from picking him to win, but I respect him in exotics.

Top Picks:

7. Cody’s Wish
4. Hoist the Gold
10. Endorsed

Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic - Race 11, 5:27pm ET - Simon Bray

This years Turf Classic is probably not the strongest we’ve seen in recent years as there is only one Grade One winner in the race and that is Santin (#8) who is the defending champ. He also took the Arlington Million (Gr1) in 2022 but ended the year with two sub par races. His comeback at Turfway in March was also disappointing but he had a legitimate excuse as he completey blew the start with a bad stumble. Big question….is he still the same horse he was a year ago? If so, he will be tough, but there are some questions.

Up to the Mark (#5) has been much improved since switching to the grass. After two allowance wins trainer Todd Pletcher gave him a shot in the Makers Mile (Gr1) three weeks ago at Keeneland and he ran a huge third just a nose behind the brilliant Modern Games. Can he reproduce another huge effort of three weeks rest? This race is not as tough as the Makers so I think it’s possible.

Hong Kong Harry (#7) comes in from the West Coast with five wins since coming to the US. While the competition in this division in California is not the deepest, neither is this field. He seems better when he has a fast pace to close into and he should get an honest set up with at least three horses that want to be positioned close to the front early.

Good Luck !

Top Picks
7. Hong Kong Harry
5. Up to the Mark
8. Santin

Kentucky Derby - Race 12, 6:57pm ET - Todd Schrupp

To win a Championship in any Sport, the goal is to 'Peak' at the right time. There are numerous examples of Teams or Athletes who had a dominant regular Season, only to watch their Championship aspirations go off the rails in the Post Season. This year in the NHL the Boston Bruins were a historically dominant team during Regular Season play only to be upset by the Florida Panthers who found their game at the right time. Horse Racing, and in particular, the Kentucky Derby are no exception to this truism.

For this group of Three-year-olds coming into the 149th Kentucky Derby no horse has looked better in the 'Regular Season' than Forte. (Coincidentally he's Co-owned by Vincent 'Vinnie' Viola who owns the aforementioned Florida Panthers.) Going back to his Championship Two-year-old campaign Forte comes into the Kentucky Derby on a Five Race win streak. His Two starts as a Three-year-old in Florida are as good as any other Kentucky Derby Prep race winners we've seen this year. He will be the favorite in the Derby this year, a deserved favorite, but he will not be my selection.

Each year the Kentucky Derby is won by a horse who gets the trip, and who 'peaks' at the right time. My view is Forte 'peaked' in Florida. The most dominant horse I ever witnessed in the Florida Three-year-old Kentucky Derby Prep series was Unbridled's Song, who in 1996 won the Florida Derby by nearly 6 lengths and left one of the best horses of that era in his wake, Skip Away. After following up his FL Derby with a Wood Memorial win; Unbridled's Song rolled into Louisville as the favorite and finished Fifth. He battled foot problems the Week of the Derby, and truly 'peaked' too soon.

My top Three Picks in order of preference for this year's Kentucky Derby are all horses that did not win their final Prep Race, but I believe can move forward and 'Peak' on Derby Day.

#8 Mage - The move he made sweeping by the Florida Derby field on the far turn was the best turn of foot I saw from a three-year-old this year. It was also by happenstance, Mage didn't break well and was farther back than normal. However, it showed his ability to adapt and overcome obstacles even if he didn't win that day. With just Three Career starts, Mage has a 'High Ceiling', and so much more to give.

#9 Skinner - 'Wide Sweeping Move' is his game. That move got him a third in the San Felipe and a third in the Santa Anita Derby. His Santa Anita Derby effort was a move forward, and he gives off Giacomo vibes. Trainer John Shireffs shocked the World with Giacomo in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, and could do it this year with Skinner.

#2 Verifying - His only disappointing performance this Spring was in The Rebel over a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park. He disappointed on that day, but didn't disappoint in his next race The Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. He gave Tapit Trice all he could handle and will be Three times the odds of Tapit Trice on Derby Day. Simply put, too much value and ability to overlook.

That's my opinion of this year's Kentucky Derby, but remember my admonition: "The most important opinion is yours !"

Enjoy the 149th Running of the Kentucky Derby!

Top Picks
8. Mage
9. Skinner
2. Verifying