2024 Kentucky Oaks Odds

By TVG Staff
Updated May 2, 2024

The 147th Kentucky Oaks kicks off at Churchill Downs on Friday, May 3. This 1.25-million-dollar purse Grade I event for three-year-old fillies (female horses) is as old as the Kentucky Derby itself.

While the Derby features a full field of 20 runners, the Kentucky Oaks is restricted to 14 fillies in the gate and a slightly shorter distance of 11⁄8 miles, or nine furlongs. The 2024 edition drew an overflow field: 14 in the main group, plus two on the also-eligible list. These horses can draw in if one or two horses defect from the main field before 9:00 a.m. on Friday, the scratch time.

The Kentucky Oaks race is one of the longest continuously-held sporting events in American history. The race was established on May 19th, 1875, by the same founder of the Kentucky Derby, Colonel Meriwether Lewis Clark, and is modeled after the British Epsom Oaks. The historic Churchill Downs racetrack is decorated in pink bunting, and the more than 100,000 guests incorporate pink into their attire to raise funds and drive national attention to the fight against breast and ovarian cancer.

Familiarizing yourself with who is in contention comes easiest by checking out the latest odds on the Kentucky Oaks.

Current 2024 Kentucky Oaks Entries and Odds Summary

The 7-2 morning-line favorite for the 2024 Kentucky Oaks is Tarifa, trained by Brad Cox. She has won four of her five starts, including both the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) and Rachel Alexandra (G2), a pair of historically live points races. However, her lone loss was a fourth-place finish in an allowance at Churchill Downs, after a poor start.

The 4-1 second choice on the morning line is Todd Pletcher trainee Leslie’s Rose, who comes off of an open-lengths victory over champion juvenile filly Just F Y I. Trained by Bill Mott, Just F Y I is the 9-2 third choice on the Kentucky Oaks morning line. The trio of 5-1 shots in the tightly-packed morning line includes Fantasy (G2) winner Thorpedo Anna and the 1-2 finishers in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), Power Squeeze and Ways and Means.

Longer shots on the Kentucky Oaks odds board include Where’s My Ring (15-1), who broke her maiden with a 4 ¼-length victory in the Gazelle (G3); Lemon Muffin (30-1), the impressive Honeybee (G3) winner who has to bounce back from a disappointment in the Fantasy (G2); and Everland (30-1), a former claimer who upset the Bourbonette Oaks and will try dirt for the first time in the Kentucky Oaks.

2024 Kentucky Oaks Contender List

The Kentucky Oaks was drawn on Saturday, April 27. These are the horses who drew into the race, in order of their post positions.

Tapit Jenallie (Post 1, 30-1)

Tapit Jenallie was scratched from the Kentucky Oaks on Thursday.

Gin Gin (Post 2, 30-1)

The second-stringer from the Brad Cox barn, she was a no-threat third in the Gazelle Stakes last out, though the effort returned a surprisingly respectable speed rating. It’s easy to trust her connections in the Kentucky Oaks: Cox and jockey Florent Geroux, who won the Oaks together in both 2018 and 2020. Gin Gin has some form over the Churchill course as well, and has never missed the board in three starts over an off track. That matters, as there is a good chance of rain on Friday.

Where’s My Ring (Post 3, 15-1)

It took her eight tries to break her maiden, but she did it when it counted: in the Gazelle, which she won by 4 ¼ lengths in fast, stalk-and-pounce fashion. She returns to the same distance for this race as well. She finished a close third in her only off-track start despite a tough start and some trip trouble, a positive if the track comes up wet on Oaks day. Especially if she stays at something close to her morning line, she has price appeal.

Regulatory Risk (Post 4, 20-1)

Her only win came gate to wire in a maiden race, suggesting that might be the best place for her to be, though she kept on for second in the Gazelle after pressing the pace. That win did come on a muddy track, suggesting some possibility with the wet forecast, though she disappointed on the slop in the Busher next out. There is also the question as to whether she can maintain her solid form from the Gazelle, or if she regresses from such a big step up.

Thorpedo Anna (Post 5, 5-1)

In four starts she has never put up a bad effort, with three wins and a second-place finish in the Golden Rod (G2) after breaking slowly. Two of those four outings have come at Churchill, meaning the Oaks-day footing could suit. Slop is a question, but she has some pedigree for it, which helps her case. And, she can win from either a pressing spot or a few lengths off early, which should help her carve out a trip.

Lemon Muffin (Post 6, 30-1)

The question she has to answer is, who is the real Lemon Muffin? In the Honeybee, she looked like a horse who was coming close but woke up big time on the stretch to first-time route. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has said that Lemon Muffin came out of her disappointing Fantasy with a minor illness, but if she is back to herself and she can run back to her previous form, she could get a piece of the action at big odds.

Fiona’s Magic (Post 7, 30-1)

Her first five starts, all at one turn at Gulfstream, were smart outings. However, when stretched to two turns for the first time, she disputed a modest early pace before weakening badly. That is not a good sign for her ability to stretch out to the Kentucky Oaks distance. And, with some other speed in the race, she is most likely to be an early pace factor before backing up.

Tarifa (Post 8, 7-2)

The likely favorite for the Kentucky Oaks, she has won four of her five starts. Her only defeat did come at Churchill, though it was in a one-turn race last year and the start did not go particularly well. She has strong tactical speed, her pedigree suggests she should love 1 ⅛ miles, and she has won over wet and dry tracks. She also comes out of the Fair Grounds prep series, one of the most live in recent times.

Everland (Post 9, 30-1)

Claimed for $30,000 at Turfway in December, she has won two of three starts since joining the string of trainer Eric Foster, including the Bourbonette Oaks. She does her best work from a closing style, meaning she hopes that as much speed as possible locks up with each other early. Dirt is a question as she has only ever tried turf and Tapeta—sire Arrogate and damsire Tapit are top-quality dirt stamina influences, though her female family is very grass-oriented.

Into Champagne (Post 10, 30-1)

She won her first two career starts in stalk-and-pounce fashion, but her form has started to tail off as the company has gotten classier and the distances have gotten longer. That hardly comes as a surprise, as her pedigree skews … one turn, even one-turn miler, but not so full of route stamina. Expect her to be part of the early pace, but it would be a surprise to see her in the picture at the finish.

Ways and Means (Post 11, 5-1)

She is well-regarded by trainer Chad Brown, and she won her six-furlong debut at Saratoga last year by a dozen lengths. However, she has run into big trouble in her last two starts and been narrowly beaten in both. On one hand, she has the talent to stay interested when things go wrong, a good thing in a 14-horse field, and she gets a jockey change to Tyler Gaffalione. On the other hand, betting a horse who keeps finding trouble in a spot like this is a questionable proposition if she gets as overbet as Chad Brown trainees often do.

Power Squeeze (Post 12, 5-1)

It took her three starts to break her maiden last year, but she has rattled off victories in her last four, including in the Gulfstream Park Oaks last out against Ways and Means. She has been versatile enough to win from toward the rear or just a few lengths off the pace, and she is tactical enough to both avoid a pace battle and situate close enough to a sluggish pace. She may also be a better price than her form indicates she should be, given her under-the-radar connections.

Just F Y I (Post 13, 9-2)

She was perfect in three starts as a juvenile, sealing up champion 2-year-old filly honors when she held by a neck in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last fall. She tasted defeat for the first time when she could not catch Leslie’s Rose in the Ashland last out. However, she took a big step forward from debut to second-out last year, which fits right into Bill Mott’s pattern of his horses improving second off the lay.

Leslie’s Rose (Post 14, 4-1)

An emphatic debut winner at Aqueduct last November, she followed that up with an allowance win as well. Though she was beaten at 3-10 odds in the Davona Dale—a race that was still at one turn—she shined in her first two-turn outing, stalking the pace and clearing off to win by three lengths over champion Just F Y I. She should be able to get a nice outside tracking trip over a course that is fair to outside draws, and shapes as a major contender.

Our Pretty Woman (AE, No. 15, 15-1)

With Tapit Jenallie scratching Thursday, she drew into the field. This is well deserved, and she shapes as a serious player. After two sharp victories over the slop at Fair Grounds, she set the pace in the Fair Grounds Oaks and lost by less than a length to the more experienced Tarifa. She also has tactical speed, with wins on the front end and from a stalking spot. If she draws in—and especially if the track turns up wet—do not ignore her.

Candied (AE, No. 16, 20-1)

She was on the shelf for a long time after finishing a close third behind Just F Y I in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Sent off the favorite in the Ashland, she couldn’t quite catch the likes of Leslie’s Rose and Just F Y I that time, and flattened late to be fourth. She had two better outings at 1 1/16 miles last year, both in the Breeders’ Cup and when she won the Alcibiades, and stands to be better second off the lay. However, she hopes for as much early speed as possible if she does draw in, so she gets something to close into.

2024 Kentucky Oaks Predictions

These are the top contenders for the 2024 Kentucky Oaks.

Win: #14 Leslie’s Rose

Place: #8 Tarifa

Show: #3 Where’s My Ring

Longshots: #15 Our Pretty Woman, #6 Lemon Muffin

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