2024 Kentucky Derby Top Picks and Selections

By TVG Staff

Updated May 2, 2024

The Kentucky Derby is one of the greatest betting opportunities of the year. With the biggest field of the year and some of the most classy horses in training, it is a challenge for bettors, but the payoffs on bets are some of the best in the game. The race is run on the first Saturday in May, so the 2024 running happens May 4, 2024 at Churchill Downs.

At a distance of 1 ¼ miles, every horse will face a new challenge in the Derby. The one who can endure and emerge victorious will claim a lion's share of the $5 million purse (up from the $3 million of the 2023 Kentucky Derby!) and etch their name in horse racing history. To help you maximize your betting potential, check out our expert Kentucky Derby picks and take advantage of this thrilling opportunity to win big.

The huge field and the huge pools on the race mean there will be live longshots and huge payouts—if you’re capable of making great picks. To dive right in, you can make all of the most popular wagers on the Kentucky Derby: win, place, show, as well as exotics like exactas, trifectas, superfectas, and stakes-filled multi-race sequences. It is the horse betting event of the year!

Live Derby Week Coverage on FanDuel TV+

Tune in to FanDuel TV+ for Derby Week coverage featuring live racing and analysis. You can watch the live coverage of Kentucky Derby on NBC. FanDuel TV will also be on-site at Churchill Downs providing comprehensive coverage, including the latest news, analysis, and handicapping insights in the days leading up to the Derby.

Kentucky Derby Picks 2024:

The 2024 Kentucky Derby was drawn on Saturday, April 27. It was an earlier draw than usual, but it’s a boon for bettors because now there is a full week to analyze the Kentucky Derby, complete with a known field and post positions.

These are the horses to put into strongest focus: either because they are great bets in the Derby, or because you can do well betting against them.

Kentucky Derby Live Favorites

Sierra Leone is the morning-line second choice behind Fierceness, but looks like the most likely winner of the race on paper. All the speed that benefits Honor Marie benefits Sierra Leone, too. It may be a bit tougher for him to carve out a trip—Honor Marie got the cozy 7 gate, while Sierra Leone is buried in the 2 hole. But, as a closer, there is a little more leeway for him to find a place to drop back than if he had to negotiate that gate as a forward horse. Sierra Leone has been unstoppable in two starts at age three, including an impressive sustained rally to win the Blue Grass (G1). That showed excellent stamina from this son of Gun Runner, and if he brings that to Churchill Downs, he will be well set to make a good showing in the Kentucky Derby.

With all the early speed entered, Catching Freedom should be another horse ready to make a strong run in the Kentucky Derby. He comes off of a win in the Louisiana Derby, where he finished well. He has never put up a bad effort in five career starts, and never failed to fire. The 4 gate is toward the inside, but just enough off the rail to start looking more like a decent middle gate. Finally his jockey, Flavien Prat, has been one of the unsung stars of the Kentucky Derby: in six attempts at the Run for the Roses, he has won once and finished in the top three in five of those six outings.

Kentucky Derby Bet-Againsts

Fierceness is the morning-line favorite. When this Todd Pletcher charge is good, he is brilliant: he was an impressive maiden winner, a dominant winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and a runaway Florida Derby (G1) victor at Gulfstream Park in his final prep. However, he comes up flat about as often as he comes up brilliant. With 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby, there is a lot of room for chaos, and the Kentucky Derby odds board will not offer a fair price on such an inconsistent horse as Fierceness, given the potential for a flat effort.

Even when Epic Ride was relegated to the also-eligible list, the near-outside gate for Fierceness was little comfort. He drew a cozy near-outside gate for the much easier Holy Bull (G3), still managed to start poorly, and finish a flat third. Now, with Encino out and Epic Ride in, Fierceness does not even have the advantage of drawing outermost of the speed. He could get in trouble easily, and for a morning-line favorite who needs things his own way, that makes him a poor betting prospect.

Forever Young is taking a significant amount of betting interest in Kentucky Derby future markets. In a sense, it’s logical: the Yoshito Yahagi trainee is a perfect five-for-five coming into the Kentucky Derby, he overcame a distance much too short for him in the Saudi Derby (G3), and he impressed when he stretched out for the UAE Derby (G2). He is consistent, he knows how to ship, he can show speed, and he will love 1 ¼ miles. However, the past performances for UAE Derby winners in the Kentucky Derby are grim, and the money he is taking in futures markets suggest he will be underlaid for his first attempt against a full field of top American dirt sophomores.

Kentucky Derby Contenders

Just Steel finished an appealing second behind Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass, and what he showed in that race makes him an interesting contender for the Kentucky Derby. Especially with Epic Ride now drawing in off the also-eligible list to replace the scratched Encino, the pace should be very sharp. But, if Just Steel can lay just off of it in the next flight, he could get the first jump and dare the closers to catch him—think the kind of trip Two Phil’s got in the 2023 Kentucky Derby when he ran second behind Mage. His Blue Grass performance suggests he has the quality to do just that.

One other price to consider, specifically for underneath rungs of bigger exotics, is Just Steel. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee was the iron horse of the Arkansas spur of the Kentucky Derby trail: he ran in all four points races at Oaklawn, and finished second in all but one of them. Though he is usually toward the front, he can bide his time a couple lengths back while the real speed crackles. And, his pedigree is one of the best for this distance: he is by Triple Crown winner Justify out of a mare by Fastnet Rock—a horse who, though he was a brilliant sprinter, has produced plenty of turf stamina. In short, though a win from Just Steel would be a surprise, a place in the superfecta would be just another day at the office.

Kentucky Derby Pick Analysis

There is an old adage, “The pace makes the race,” so as the field gets clearer, make sure to check each horse’s past performance data and make a note of their running style. Horses with tactical speed often win the Kentucky Derby: unless, of course, the pace falls apart like it did in 2022 when the late run from Rich Strike won the day. As the field of Kentucky Derby contenders takes better shape, we will update this with information about how the pace scenario is likely to set up, and which horses are likely to get an advantageous setup.

Another thing to consider, other than pace, is how the horses are bred for distance. The Kentucky Derby is 1 ¼ miles, longer than most horses will ever run, and the Kentucky Derby winner is probably going to be a horse who has better than average stamina breeding. Since the advent of the points system in 2013, there have been fewer pure sprinters who have made it into the Kentucky Derby field since the most important points races are all at route distances. All of the 100-point prep races are either 1 ⅛ or 1 3/16 miles, which can begin to shine a light on whether a horse can handle the Classic distance or not.

Whatever flavor of bet you go for, remember that pro handicappers and once-a-year players alike should not put down their cash on picks until they are fully informed and know all the variables, such as the morning line odds, prep race results, and how the horses have been training in the morning over the Churchill Downs course.

Your best bet for Derby picks is to keep checking the news and updates on the Kentucky Derby contenders, make sure that the horses who looked good off of their prep races are still coming in well, and then look at the draws and likely pace scenarios once the race is actually drawn during the first week of May.

Handicapping Basics

If you want to start picking your own horses in the Kentucky Derby, the prep races, or all year long, you should become familiar with some of the basics of handicapping before placing any picks

This race is run off of “level weights,” so handicapping in the traditional sense of weight carrying is not needed. All male horses carry 126 pounds; fillies would carry 121, but no fillies are expected to run in 2024. However, the Derby is a competitive field of three-year-olds, all potentially at their peak, and so it is partly about trying to make sense of who will actually reach a peak now, and what level that will take them to.

Here are some of the main things to consider when making your picks:

Form and Speed Ratings

Both race form and speed ratings are important, but over 1¼ miles, and in this high stakes of a race, the former is much more important than the latter, especially since none of the runners has tried the Classic distance yet. Speed ratings can be found in many products both online and in print, as can current form.

Check out the horse’s current racing form; what rating does each horse have? When did they achieve it? Are they lightly raced and look like they are improving? What have the horses they have beaten achieved subsequently? These are all crucial questions.

Post Positions

In a race with as big a field as the Kentucky Derby, being drawn too wide or right on the inner can be a real disadvantage. Those on the inner (low numbers) can get caught in traffic while those out wide give away ground. These are issues in prep races, especially ones with fields of ten or twelve or fourteen, but absolutely critical in the Kentucky Derby given its size.

This is a major reason it is good to keep an open mind about your picks until the week of the race. A horse with strong form may draw a disastrous post, and it pays to think critically about how much you think a bad post affects their chances to win.

How to Pick Based on Breeding

As these horses haven’t reached their peak yet, we need more clues. It’s all in the blood with Thoroughbreds, so look out for those whose sires and grandsires have run well in Triple Crown races in their own careers, or those that seem to want more “ground” based on their pedigrees.

It can also pay off to look at their dams (their mothers), as well as the siblings of these Derby horses. If their siblings have good form over long distances like 1¼ miles or even longer, it is a positive sign that the horses can improve with the extra ground.

Keep it TVG for Your 2024 Kentucky Derby Bets

You can watch and wager with TVG as we keep you informed on all things Kentucky Derby. Take a look at the latest Derby odds to see what sort of value you can get for your wagers.

If you're interested in discovering more about betting with our partners, we recommend checking out the FanDuel Kentucky Derby website. This hub offers valuable information on the event, take a look to see how you can get involved.